The electric vehicle market hasn’t died in the U.S. It wasn’t ever going to. But many automakers, who historically don’t have a crystal ball to foresee tremendous global events, have to worry that they were too hasty to change course on EVs in America now that gas prices have soared amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Oil prices in the $100 per barrel range for the last several weeks have recharged consumer interest in EVs in the U.S., according to Edmunds. In a report last week, the automotive industry site reported EV consideration on its site rose by 2 points to 11.6% from February and was the highest since Sept. 2025, the month the federal tax credit ended. That’s despite market share for electrics so far in 2026 hovering around the 6% mark compared to about 8% over the same period last year and around 10% as the tax credit wound down.
“EV market share has settled back into a narrower range, and while growth isn’t accelerating, it also isn’t collapsing,” Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights, said. “That stability may ultimately be a healthier signal for the industry.”
Cox Automotive also released a report last week with similar statistics, showing the market has leveled off in the usually quiet January-March period for new car sales, instead of completely cratering as automakers who rushed to add hybrids or range-extender vehicles, or cancel EV programs altogether, predicted they’d lose their shirts with unsold inventory. They point to brands like Cadillac, Lexus, and Toyota that posted highly positive EV sales figures even though some others have reported sales freefalls in the 60-70% range.
Both Edmunds and Cox, however, caution that it’s unclear this early in a gas price surge if the interest in EVs is just interest or if it turns into actual sales.
“What comes next will be driven less by policy and more by fundamentals: more affordable products, smarter pricing strategies, and continued investment in infrastructure,” Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of insights at Cox Automotive, said in a statement. “Those longer-term fundamentals continue to support EV growth. The timeline has shifted, but the direction hasn’t.”
Caldwell also cited the rise in EV interest in 2022 during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted a jump in gas prices. More people were interested in electrics, but the statistic rose less than 1% over three months.
Cox Automotive also reported a 12% increase in used EV sales in the first three months of the year. Analysts have predicted since last year that 2026 will be a big year for used EVs, as many three-year-old examples of popular models from Tesla, Ford, and Hyundai, among others, end up at big dealerships. A sputtering economy and the $50,000-plus average price of a new car have shifted many buyers into used vehicles in recent years.
It’s not all good signs so far. The last of the significant first-quarter new car sales were released on Monday, and they made for grim reading. Volvo reported a 32% drop in U.S. sales as it awaits the EX60 electric SUV this summer, with full EVs reporting a 14% drop over the first quarter in 2025. The least-expensive Volvo, the electric EX30 SUV, won’t return for 2027, and order books closed last month. The U.S.-built EX90 three-row EV continues to be beset with various problems.
Sales were down by a comparatively small 16% at Volkswagen of America, with the dead-for-now ID.4 compact SUV posting just 338 sales in Q1 compared to more than 7,600 at the same time last year. Even the also-dead-for-now ID Buzz electric van sold almost four times as many from inventory that landed last year, but still declining by 35%. Audi of America was nearly as bad as VW, off 30%, as many of its EVs posted quarterly sales in the double digits, and even newer models average less than 100 sales per month in the U.S.
These brands, though, join a list of names that are typically dependable sellers but are hobbled by tariffs, inflation, and an unpredictable economy that isn’t pushing pragmatic shoppers to pull the trigger on an expensive purchase. Subaru, for example, was off 23.5% for the quarter, and even though it will have four EVs by the end of 2026, only one will be built in the U.S.
It’s not the big comeback moment that the EV industry is looking for, but, if previous energy crises are anything to go by, high fuel prices are going to last. And with several new models from automakers, including the potentially affordable Kia K3 and Slate pickup truck, still in the pipeline this year, buyers who need a new set of wheels could be incentivized to go electric.
Read the full article here
