On Monday, President Donald Trump told reporters that his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night would be “a long speech, because we have so much to talk about.” It’s scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET/ 6 p.m. PT, but what time will it end? If you know the answer to that, you might be able to make some money.
Betting sites have been flooded with people who are trying to guess what “long” actually means, but it’s probably important to keep two things in mind:
1) Trump lies.
2) Folks in Trump’s orbit have been suspected of insider trading before.
Lisa Dejardins, a correspondent for PBS NewsHour, wrote on X that the speech is going to be a long one.
“SOTU to be *over 2 hours long*, several reliable Republican sources tell me they have been told. One said they were told 2.5 – 3 hours (!!), though that is the high end and could be a reverse jinx attempt,” Dejardins tweeted.
Dejardins didn’t name her sources, only describing them as “reliable,” but it’s entirely possible for reliable people to pass along uninformed gossip or unknowingly share disinformation designed to influence the way the public is thinking about things. In a world where you can bet on anything, it’s important to keep that possibility in mind.
Traders can bet on nine different outcomes on the predictions market Kalshi, right now. Options range from “60 min and above,” which currently has a 99% chance, to “100 min or above,” which has a 68% chance at the moment. Kalshi tweeted Tuesday: “Our traders forecast Trump to speak for 99 minutes tonight.”
Over on Polymarket, which is banned in the U.S., the odds of Trump going over 100 minutes are currently 70%, up from 40% yesterday.
How long have Trump’s speeches been previously?
The American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara tracks the length of State of the Union speeches, and Trump’s average during his first term was 1 hour, 20 minutes, and 20 seconds, just a few minutes short of the longest speech of that term, clocking in at 1 hour, 22 minutes, and 25 seconds.
Trump’s first term may not provide the best guidance for what could happen tonight. Because Trump’s first speech to Congress after being inaugurated for a second time blew his first term out of the water. Trump spoke for 1 hour, 39 minutes, and 32 seconds on March 4, 2025.
Trump’s speech last year wasn’t technically called a State of the Union address because a president’s first speech to Congress after being inaugurated isn’t really about the “state of the union,” or what they’ve accomplished during the year. They haven’t been in office long enough yet for that to make sense.
Could he really last beyond 2 hours?
While everyone should remain skeptical of Trump’s claims, especially when there’s money on the line, there is a compelling case to be made that this one might make the record books.
Authoritarians and aspiring dictators often speak for extended periods of time. Fidel Castro famously gave a speech to the United Nations in 1960 that lasted 269 minutes (4 hours and 29 minutes). Adolf Hitler’s famous Reichstag speech in 1939 lasted about two and a half hours.
If Trump broke two hours, it would easily be the longest State of the Union address in history. For context, Joe Biden averaged 1 hour and 7 minutes, Barack Obama averaged 1 hour and 2 minutes, and George W. Bush averaged about 52 minutes. Speaking for about an hour is normal. Speaking for two hours or more is not normal.
Look closely at the rules
One thing that often trips people up is not reading the rules for the bet they’re making. The measure for how long Trump speaks will be determined by the “first word audibly said by Trump” in an official capacity into the microphone, and anything picked up by a hot mic during his entrance and exit will not count.
The rules, according to Kalshi:
Speaking will be measured from first word audibly said by Trump to the last word audibly said by Trump. Pauses in speech will be included in the speech time if they are between those two points. First word will be recognized when Donald Trump speaks in an official capacity into the microphone. Words picked up on a hot mic during Donald Trump’s entrance & exit will not count.
The exact terms for these bets are just one of many reasons to remain cautious when making bets on prediction markets. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s firstborn son, is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Exercise caution
We can’t tell you how long President Trump’s speech is going to last tonight. But we urge caution, no matter what you decide to do.
It seems pretty clear that Trump and whoever is talking to reporters behind the scenes wants the public to believe this is going to be a historically long speech. And it might be! But it seems just as likely that Trump delivers something long-ish while he and his buddies make a lot of money gaming the system.
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