It’s only Friday morning, but Thursday box office numbers are already in, and they’re not looking great for The Mandalorian and Grogu. According to Deadline, the new Star Wars film earned $12 million in North America yesterday, less than the $14 million in Thursday night totals earned by Solo: A Star Wars Story. This is in line with earlier box office predictions, which estimated an $80 million four-day domestic opening weekend for The Mandalorian and Grogu, compared to $103 million for Solo (both films opened over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, giving them each an extra day for weekend totals).
It’s important to remember, though, that the weekend could still surprise us. The Mandalorian and Grogu has been marketed heavily to families with younger kids, and it’s basically the only family-friendly option in theaters right now. It’s also got a significantly higher audience score on Rotten Tomatoes than Solo did (88% for The Mandalorian and Grogu vs. 63% for Solo). Plus, the production budget for Mando and Grogu is lower than Solo, which means the path to financial success for Disney will be easier.
The Memorial Day opening weekend strategy is a return to form for Star Wars after the sequel trilogy (Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens, Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, and Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker) favored December releases. Traditionally, Star Wars had been a Memorial Day weekend franchise, with the first six Star Wars films all opening on the holiday weekend. The Memorial Day weekend strategy ultimately didn’t work for Solo, but The Mandalorian and Grogu could be a different story.
The reception to The Mandalorian and Grogu has been polarizing so far, with critics lukewarm (at best) on the film and audiences rating it highly. We’ll find out next week how that ultimately impacts its box office returns.
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