A report by the Japan-based, English-language magazine Nikkei Asia looked at the state of the memory business in East Asia lately, and, long story short: demand is still astronomical, and progress toward meeting that demand is slow.
So don’t expect price relief until next year, and even that might be a stretch.
Sticker shock in computers and gadgets has become the new status quo. Microsoft said “recent increases in memory and component costs” led to price hikes of up to $500 across its Surface product line. Raspberry Pi prices went up by as much as $150 earlier this month. Meta just blamed the memory shortage when it raised the price of the Quest 3 headset by $100. Apple’s low-priced MacBook Neo is a notable exception to this rule—and perhaps consequently, a huge hit.
Nikkei notes that production would have to grow 12% per year through the end of 2027 to meet demand, but we’re only seeing 7.5% growth.
South Korea dominates the RAM business. Nikkei says a large project from the world’s largest RAM producer, the South Korean Chaebol Samsung, is progressing at its Pyeongtaek manufacturing complex, but “full-scale mass production” of memory isn’t expected until next year.
Earlier this week, according to Reuters, Samsung asked the courts to step in to prevent labor organizers from engaging in what Samsung alleged were illegal activities at Pyeongtaek. The union called the legal maneuver a “declaration of war.”
According to Nikkei Asia there’s a 40 percent gap between supply and demand in the meantime. Nikkei cites “AI-related demand rising,” and notes that “turmoil in the Middle East is also driving up the cost of electricity and materials.”
But AI customers, according to Nikkei, shouldn’t expect the latest and greatest from the Pyeongtaek complex until at least 2028, when Samsung is expecting to roll out high-bandwidth memory (HBM) DRAM—a specialty product intended to be paired with cutting edge AI processors.
Samsung has at times appeared to be in no hurry to produce HBM DRAM for AI customers. It had allowed competitors like SK Henix to get a toehold in that market as Samgung focused on traditional DRAM that consumer gadgets also rely on. According to Nikkei, SK Henix’s Cheongju HBM-producing facility will continue to be the only major source of HBM throughout the rest of 2026.
Citing comments from Counterpoint Research’s MS Hwang, Nikkei writes that it appears “Supply and demand won’t normalize until 2028.”
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