Despite controversy and accusations ranging from gambling to insider trading, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity in recent years. Now, even Nasdaq wants to dip its toes into event-based trading.
Nasdaq is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch new outcome-based options tied to major indexes, according to a regulatory filing submitted Monday.
The exchange plans to roll out what it calls “outcome-related options” connected to the Nasdaq-100 Index, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the exchange, including Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla. Nasdaq is also seeking approval to offer the contracts on the Nasdaq-100 Micro, a smaller index designed for smaller trades.
These binary options would allow traders to place yes-or-no bets on specific outcomes, such as, whether the Nasdaq-100 will close above or below a certain level by a specific date.
The contracts would be priced between $0.01 and $1, with the price reflecting the market’s estimate of the probability of the outcome. If the event occurs, the contract pays out. If it doesn’t, it becomes worthless.
Nasdaq did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Gizmodo.
The move comes as prediction markets have become mainstream despite intense scrutiny. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have been around since 2018 but really started gaining attention after accurately forecasting major events such as the outcomes of the 2024 presidential election and 2025 New York City mayoral race.
Major media institutions are also partnering with these marketplaces, lending them additional credibility. CNN teamed up with Kalshi last year, while the Golden Globes partnered with Polymarket earlier this year. Most recently, the Associated Press announced today that it will provide Kalshi with data and race calls for national and state elections.
Meanwhile, critics of these marketplaces have raised concerns over the potential of insider trading, especially where bets involving major world events are concerned, such as the downfall of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro or the U.S. strikes on Iran.
While both companies publicly discourage insider trading, Polymarket openly encourages those with exceptional knowledge to leverage their expertise on the market.
“If you’re an expert on a certain topic, Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from trading based on your knowledge, while improving the market’s accuracy,” the company’s user guide says.
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