Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have actively courted people who have insider information to place bets on their platforms, claiming that it serves as a “signal” in the noise. Turns out the companies from which that inside information is extracted are less thrilled with the idea. According to Wired, OpenAI has fired an employee who allegedly used internal knowledge about the company to place bets on prediction markets.
The employee (who was not named) was reportedly let go after an internal investigation found that they had “used confidential OpenAI information in connection with external prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket).” Employees were reminded that OpenAI prohibits them from “using confidential OpenAI information for personal gain, including in prediction markets,” per Wired.
Wired cited data from financial data platform Unusual Whales, which showed a surge of bets on OpenAI-related topics placed on prediction markets over the last few years. The platform reportedly flagged 60 different wallets with 77 positions that suggested they came from someone who had knowledge that likely came from inside OpenAI’s walls. Those included bets on the release date of Sora, GPT-5, and other products.
One big trigger point for the insiders was apparently the launch of the ChatGPT Browser last year. Per Unusual Whales’ data, 13 wallets with zero activity were opened, signed up for prediction markets, and collectively bet $309,486 on the product’s launch date. All of them were opened within 40 hours of the public unveiling.
Insider trading has become a real challenge for prediction markets, which initially indicated they would welcome such informed positions. Last year, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told Axios, “I think what is cool about Polymarket is that it creates this financial incentive to divulge information to the market.” When asked about markets relying on people trading on insider information during an interview with 60 Minutes, Coplan said, “I think people going and having an edge to the market is a good thing.”
But in recent weeks, a crackdown on such trades has started—outside and inside the platforms. Last month, the Israeli government indicted two bettors accused of using privileged military information to profit on prediction markets. Earlier this week, prediction market Kalshi banned two people accused of insider trading, including a video editor for MrBeast and a former gubernatorial candidate in California. The company said in a blog post announcing the action that, “As a regulated exchange, we ban insider trading.”
That’s a new angle from the industry, though maybe a necessary turn. Inviting insider knowledge might be good for the platform in the short term, but it risks fucking up the bag as these platforms try to lock down corporate partners. There’s likely more money in that than in completely unregulated degeneracy.
OpenAI did not immediately return a request for comment. We’ll update this post when they do.
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