The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season today, predicting “above-normal” storm activity. The news comes amid concerns that sweeping staff cuts and policy shifts may impact the agency’s preparedness.
A total of 13 to 19 named storms could form in the Atlantic basin this year, Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), said during the Thursday news briefing in Gretna, Louisiana. Of those, six to 10 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five could become “major” hurricanes—Category 3, 4, or 5.
If this forecast comes to fruition, it would mark the ninth consecutive year of above-average storm activity in the Atlantic basin, primarily driven by rising ocean temperatures.
Last year, the season saw 18 named storms, 11 of which were hurricanes. Five intensified to major hurricanes, including Category 4 Helene and Category 5 Milton, which made landfall in the U.S. within two weeks of each other and devastated large swaths of the Southeast.
Based on NOAA’s forecast, the 2025 season could be similar. But this time around, the agency will be working with a significantly reduced staff. The NWS alone has lost more than 10% of its workforce since the Trump administration took office, CBS News reported.
Despite this, Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said the National Hurricane Center (NHC)—an arm of the NWS—is “fully staffed and ready to go,” emphasizing that forecasting is a top priority both for NOAA and the Trump administration.
In a statement, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said NOAA has “never been more prepared for hurricane season,” pointing to “advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems” that should provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings.
Indeed, NOAA promised some big improvements for this season, highlighting moves to upgrade its hurricane analysis and forecast system, issue tropical storm advisories up to 72 hours before landfall, and extend their global tropical hazards outlook—which provides advance notice of potential storm risks—from two weeks to three weeks.
The agency plans to deploy new tools as well, including an experimental, plane-mounted radar system that will collect data on ocean waves and wind during a hurricane. NOAA also aims to expand its flood inundation mapping (FIM) tool—which provides real-time, street-level visualizations of flood waters—to cover 60% of the U.S. this year. It currently covers just 30%.
But just two days ago, an unnamed NOAA official told Scientific American that “everything has ground to a halt” at the agency due to Lutnick’s insistence that he personally review any contract over $100,000. This stalled more than 200 NOAA contracts, including one intended to help local communities prepare for extreme weather, Scientific American reports.
What’s more, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced last week that it is shifting disaster recovery responsibility to the states. While it’s still not entirely clear what this will look like, the move could significantly reduce the amount of aid states can get from FEMA. Acting chief David Richardson warned that traditional FEMA cost-sharing, which covers 75% of recovery expenses, could change by this summer, according to the Associated Press.
When asked about how this will impact members of her community during the briefing today, Jefferson Parish President Cynthia Lee Sheng said giving more responsibility to the states is a “good thing to be talking about,” but emphasized the importance of making sure that states actually have the resources to respond adequately.
Jefferson Parish—home to more than 420,000 Louisianans—was hit hard by Hurricane Francine last September, with total losses estimated at $1.3 billion.
With the official start of hurricane season just 10 days away, NOAA’s ability to weather unprecedented policy shifts during what will likely be another punishing storm season will soon be put to the test. Here’s hoping everyone can keep their heads above water.
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