Seeing widespread drought in January is historically rare in the U.S., and yet, the latest data shows that nearly every state is currently experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions. To make matters weirder, the only state that’s so far been spared by this bizarre phenomenon is the one you’d least expect.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, which shows the nationwide extent and severity of abnormally dry conditions as of January 13, 49 states are at least partially affected—leaving California as the sole exception. That’s right, the Golden State is drought-free for the first time in a quarter century. Elsewhere, more than 130 million Americans are dealing with unseasonal water stress.
“It’s terrifying to think of the upcoming fire season,” Scott Fitzwilliams, the recently retired head of Colorado’s White River National Forest, told the Washington Post. “Forest managers, water managers, and firefighters are all going to be on pins and needles come spring.”
Nationwide drought in 2025 set the stage
2025 was an exceptionally dry year for the United States. Drought was widespread and persistent across the country from January to December, reaching its national peak in late November with 36.64% of the nation in some level of drought.
Across the Western and Central U.S., this has largely been due to above-average temperatures. About 70% of the West’s water supply comes from mountain snowmelt, but April and May heatwaves caused the snowpack to melt out too early, leaving less water available during peak summer demand.
Unseasonable warmth continued to impact the region through the end of the year, with Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Texas, and Utah all setting new statewide records for November average temperatures. Additionally, the West has received far less snow than usual during the 2025-2026 winter season, which will help drought conditions persist for months to come.
In the East, drought and abnormal dryness worsened between August and September while conditions improved across parts of the West and the Great Plains. Much of New England received less than 50% of its normal summer precipitation, and by the end of September, roughly one-third of the region was in severe or extreme drought.
Fast-forward to January 2026—conditions aren’t looking any better. As of January 13, 39 states from Maine to Hawaii were experiencing drought conditions ranging from severe to exceptional, according to Drought.gov. At that time, these conditions covered 35.66% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico, or 42.55% of the Lower 48 states.
While certain areas have received beneficial precipitation over the past two weeks—including parts of the central Plains, Midwest, Southwest, and central Rocky Mountains—temperatures remained above normal across most of the country. Drought recovery already takes months to years, but research shows that climate change is making it take even longer, with shorter periods of time between droughts.
Needless to say, it will be a long time before most of the U.S. bounces back from this ongoing drought. Meanwhile, California is getting a long-awaited reprieve from its water woes, but at great cost.
California: the unusual outlier
Current conditions in California are very different than they were a year ago. The state was extremely dry in January 2025—so dry that a strong Santa Ana wind event sparked deadly and destructive wildfires that quickly tore through more than 38,000 acres (15,000 hectares) and destroyed more than 16,000 structures across the Los Angeles metropolitan area.
While last January was exceptionally devastating for California, the state had experienced at least some areas of abnormal dryness for the past 25 years. In fact, historical records show that the state has become increasingly dry since 1895. But by the end of 2025, Californians were contending with the opposite problem: extreme rainfall.
From October to December, multiple atmospheric rivers dumped above-average rainfall on the Golden State, triggering widespread flash flooding and mudslides—particularly in burn scar areas left behind by the LA wildfires. Unofficial reports suggest at least 20 people died due to this series of dangerous storms.
Enough rain fell to replenish the state’s long-depleted reservoirs and eliminate areas of abnormal dryness by the start of 2026. As a result, wildfire danger across California should remain relatively low until early summer. The rest of the U.S., however, could be in for a much more volatile wildfire season as drought, low snowpack, and above-normal temperatures persist.
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