It’s been a particularly unforgiving winter across the eastern United States so far. A relentless onslaught of Arctic blasts has kept temperatures stubbornly below freezing and supercharged multiple major storms, blanketing states as far south as the Gulf Coast in record-breaking snow and ice. Pretty soon, however, this trend could finally break.
The latest temperature outlook map from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, issued Wednesday, shows that most of the country can expect to see above-average temperatures from February 12 to 18. The only exception is the West Coast, with California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and the western half of Arizona more likely to see below-average or normal temperatures.
To be clear, this outlook map does not show actual temperature predictions for the next two weeks. Rather, it shows the likelihood that the average temperature will be above normal, near normal, or below normal based on forecast modeling. Still, the map is a welcome sight, as millions across the country have been dealing with periods of life-threatening cold since early December.
Of course, there is a catch. While this forecast certainly gives us something to look forward to, the near-term forecast indicates that another Arctic blast is already on the way, threatening to send temperatures plummeting across the East by the end of the week.
Another teeth-chattering weekend
NWS forecasters are currently tracking a storm expected to spread light wintry precipitation across parts of the Mid-Atlantic today before gradually moving off the southeastern coast. This system could intensify rapidly as it encounters the warm waters of the Gulf Stream this evening, but by then, it should already be moving quickly away from shore.
While this storm won’t have much of an impact in terms of precipitation, it will help usher in another surge of Arctic air unleashed by the disrupted polar vortex. Forecasters expect below-freezing temperatures to envelop the East by Friday morning, stretching as far south as the Florida Panhandle. In fact, it could be the coldest weekend of winter so far for much of the Northeast.
As of Thursday afternoon, the NWS had issued extreme cold watches across much of the Northeast, from Pennsylvania to northwestern Maine. This region can expect dangerous wind chills as low as -35 degrees Fahrenheit (-37 degrees Celsius). Such conditions can be deadly, leading to frostbite or hypothermia in a matter of minutes. The agency is urging residents to limit their time outside this weekend but emphasizes the importance of dressing in layers and not leaving any skin exposed if you must go out.
A cold weather advisory has also been issued across much of Florida, as well as freeze warnings in northern Florida and the southeastern corner of Georgia.
Winter’s end is near
Despite what the groundhog said, the end of meteorological winter is just around the corner. This weekend’s cold snap will likely be the last before we transition into the warming trend, so it really could start to feel like spring over the next few weeks.
Still, it’s too early to say for certain what the rest of February will bring. This month is notorious for wild local and regional temperature swings, even as average temperatures rise. As such, brief shots of cold air and late-season storms could still take shape.
Temperatures are forecast to warm up significantly across much of the East next week, so hopefully that fact will help residents get through this frigid weekend. Winter may not be over yet, but it looks like its grip on the region is finally starting to soften.
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