If you’re still dreaming of a white Christmas, it’s past time to lower your expectations. According to the latest holiday forecast, a warm air mass expanding over the south-central U.S. will bring unseasonable warmth to most states over the holiday.
This heat dome could break “numerous” high-temperature records on Christmas Day, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) stated on Saturday. From the Intermountain West to the Midwest, highs could reach the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit (around 10 to 20 degrees Celsius). The Southern Plains could see highs in the 80s F (about 27 to 32 C).
Those regions aren’t the only ones expecting springlike warmth over the holiday. In fact, the CPC’s temperature outlook for December 24 through 28 (pictured on the map above) shows that nearly the entire U.S.—except for the upper Northeast and northern Pacific Coast—is likely to see above-average temperatures.
Dreaming of a warm Christmas? 😎🎄
Numerous record high temperatures are possible this Christmas throughout the central United States, with highs forecast to range from the low 80s in the southern Plains to 50s and 60s from the Intermountain West to the Midwest. pic.twitter.com/lDIwuYiYHx
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) December 21, 2025
Merry Torchmas!
A whopping 38 cities are expected to break their all-time high temperature records on Christmas Day, including St. Louis, Missouri; Kansas City, Missouri; Des Moines, Iowa; Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Wichita, Kansas. Many of these records have been in place since the late 1800s.
There’s a good chance this warm spell will persist into the new year. The CPC’s temperature outlook for December 29 through January 4 continues to show a high likelihood of above-average temperatures across most of the country, with the greatest probabilities focused on the south-central U.S.
If you feel like you’re suffering from weather whiplash, you’re probably not alone. December got off to a frigid start when a wobbly polar vortex sent back-to-back Arctic blasts plunging southward into the U.S. The influx of frigid air helped fuel a clipper storm that blanketed the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast in snow during the first week of the month.
Now, it appears winter is on a temporary hiatus. It’s not yet clear when temperatures will return to normal.
The complex role of climate change
Winter warm spells like this one have become far more common due to climate change. In fact, winter is warming faster than any other season. Average December temperatures across the U.S. have risen 3 to 5 degrees over the past 75 years, David Robinson, New Jersey state climatologist and Rutgers University professor, recently told Time Magazine.
The likelihood of seeing a white Christmas is therefore decreasing as winters become warmer, wetter, and shorter. With that said, this doesn’t mean we’re heading toward a future where it never snows or freezes. Though they may happen less frequently, climate change is also fueling heavier snowstorms, as a warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture.
With both record cold and record warmth characterizing this December, it’s clear that climate change is making weather patterns more unpredictable. For now, it looks like we’re getting a very early taste of spring, but that could soon change.
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