The odds of Jesus Christ returning in 2026 just went up on Polymarket. While you might assume it’s because we’re clearly bringing about the End Times at any cost, or perhaps some insider at the Vatican got word from on high that he’ll be coming back and wanted to get ahead of the market, it’s actually much dumber than that. Ted Frank, the Director of Litigation at the Hamilton Lincoln Law Institute, pointed out on Twitter that the real reason is that a secondary market has formed that’s betting on whether or not the odds of Christ returning will climb above 5%, and now betters are pushing those odds up to try to cash out on their other bet.
A fair amount has been made about the bets on Christ’s return on these markets, in part because most people view it as free money. Bloomberg reported on the same bet for 2025, finding that a total of $3.3 million was placed on the market for Jesus’ second coming. By the end of the year, the odds on “yes” were hovering around 3%—but if you got in on that market in April, Bloomberg reported, you would have effectively gotten an annualized profit of 5.5%, a better return than a US Treasury bill.
That bet is back for 2026, and the odds on “yes” have largely hung out right at the 3% marker. But in the first days of February, that number started to spike. The reason: a new market. This one allows people to bet on whether the market for Jesus Christ to return before 2027 will surpass 5% odds by February 17. The odds on that are much better—there’s about a 25% chance of that one cashing.
Given the chance for such a tidy return in such a short timeframe, betters on that secondary market are financially motivated to start betting on “Yes” in the original market and run that side of the market all the way up ahead of the 5% level. They have not succeeded just yet—they pushed the levels up to 4.7% but couldn’t get over the hump. They’ve still got a whole week to succeed.
Even people on Polymarket are a bit stunned by the whole thing. In the comments on the secondary market, one user said explicitly, “This market is 100% manipulation.” Another user helpfully clarified, “It is a kind of a bet on wether [sic] there will be successful manipulation or not.” Wonder if regulators would have any thoughts on that distinction. Unfortunately, we’ll probably never find out.
Read the full article here
