Tropical Storm Erin is on track to reach the Caribbean this weekend, with current forecasts predicting it will curve north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico without making landfall. Still, Caribbean nations are bracing for severe storm impacts as Erin moves into warmer waters, increasing the risk of rapid intensification.
A National Hurricane Center update issued at 5 a.m. AST Thursday, August 14, stated that Erin should gradually strengthen over the next day or so. After that, the storm will encounter warmer sea surface temperatures and slightly less wind shear. These conditions are conducive for rapid intensification, an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots in a 24-hour period. If this storm does rapidly intensify, it will do so within the next 24 to 48 hours, the NHC stated. The agency expects this storm to reach hurricane strength by Friday and major hurricane status by Sunday.
Erin, the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, formed off the coast of West Africa on Monday, August 11. The storm brought thunderstorms, heavy rain, and gusty winds to Cabo Verde, an island nation off the coast of Senegal, earlier this week. At least eight people were killed by flooding on the island of Sao Vicente, Reuters reported Tuesday. Since then, Erin has tracked some 3,000 miles (4,800 kilometers) west across the Atlantic, gaining strength along the way.
Early Thursday morning, the storm’s center was located about 1,000 miles (1,600 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west at roughly 17 miles per hour (28 kilometers per hour), according to the NHC. It should continue along this path today before curving west-northwestward tonight, keeping that trajectory through the weekend. This should keep Erin just north of the Caribbean Islands, but it won’t need to make landfall to have an impact.
“Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands,” the NHC stated Thursday, clocking the storm’s maximum sustained winds at nearly 50 miles per hour (85 km/hr). “Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.”
Though it’s not yet clear how this storm might impact the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast, the NHC warned that the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic Basin next week is increasing. “As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place,” officials advised.
All signs point to Tropical Storm Erin becoming the first hurricane of the 2025 season. After an unusually slow start, activity in the Atlantic basin is finally revving up as we approach the September peak of hurricane season. Record-high sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic will also add energy to storm systems, helping them develop into cyclones. This is partly why the NHC is watching Erin for rapid intensification, which significantly increases the potential for hurricane damage. This powerful storm is likely to be the first of many over the next several months, as NOAA predicts two to five major Atlantic hurricanes will form this season.
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