Earth could be in for a “super El Niño” this year—one so powerful it might end up being the strongest on record. Such an event would crank up global temperatures and supercharge extreme weather, forecasters warn.
On Thursday, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch, with a 62% chance that this Pacific warm phase will emerge between June and August. Recent modeling from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests there is a 98% chance of a moderate El Niño event by August, an 80% chance of a strong event, and a 22% chance of a “super” event, according to meteorologist Ben Noll.
A super El Niño occurs when Pacific sea surface temperatures rise at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above average. These events are relatively rare, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, Noll reports for the Washington Post.
El Niño forming by May, potentially becoming strong by August — new ECMWF seasonal modeling.
By the numbers:
• 22% chance of a super El Niño by August
• 80% chance of a strong event
• 98% chance of a moderate eventThat’s according to data from 50 ensemble members. pic.twitter.com/LDOogrRcEC
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) March 6, 2026
While a typical El Niño alters regional and global weather patterns, a super El Niño can have an even stronger influence, driving more extreme weather shifts and high-impact events such as major floods, severe droughts, and significantly altered storm tracks.
A brief primer on ENSO
Under normal Pacific Ocean conditions (also known as ENSO-neutral), trade winds blow west along the equator, transporting warm water from South America to Asia. Cold water then rises from the depths to replace that warm water in a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that disrupt these normal conditions. Together, they’re known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
We’re currently in a La Niña phase, which means trade winds are stronger than usual and are pushing more warm water toward Asia. This typically causes drought in the southern U.S. and heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Under La Niña conditions, winter temperatures also tend to be above average in the south and below average in the north. But soon, the Pacific will enter a new phase.
The CPC expects a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral to occur within the next month and persist through May or July. At some point between June and August, trade winds will begin to weaken, pushing warm water back east toward the west coast of the Americas. This will raise Pacific sea surface temperatures and usher in El Niño.
The influx of warm water will cause the Pacific jet stream to shift south of its neutral position, causing the northern U.S. and Canada to become drier and hotter than usual. In the U.S. Southeast and the Gulf Coast, however, El Niño is associated with wetter weather and increased flood risk.
On a global scale, this Pacific warm phase raises the average temperature by heating the atmosphere above the equator. The combined impact of El Niño and human-driven climate change can push global temperatures to new highs—sometimes past the Paris Agreement threshold of 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) of warming above pre-industrial levels.
How a super El Niño impacts U.S. weather
It’s too early to say exactly how strong this El Niño phase will be, and a “super” event is still the least likely scenario. With that said, the odds of a highly impactful El Niño are growing, and it’s important to understand what that would mean for U.S. weather.
A super El Niño influences weather patterns in the same way as a typical event, but its impacts are usually stronger, more persistent, and more widespread, according to Noll. For example, the southern U.S. may see significantly more flooding while the West grapples with a particularly scorching summer with increased risk of drought and wildfire.
On the bright side, a strong El Niño could lead to a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, though more tropical cyclones could develop in the Pacific.
The forecasted strength of this developing El Niño event will become more clear over the next few months. Meteorologists advise against reading too much into predictions made in spring, as ENSO forecasts are intrinsically less certain during this time of year. If a super El Niño does take shape, we could be in for a year of weather extremes and record-breaking global temperatures.
Read the full article here
