A large rocky asteroid will make a close approach to Earth in 2032, with the tantalizing prospect of smashing directly into the Moon. If it does, the lunar impact is likely to produce a bright flash visible from Earth, generate meteor showers in Earth’s atmosphere, and create a long-lasting infrared glow, according to a new study.
Astronomers deemed asteroid 2024 YR4 as potentially hazardous when it was first spotted two years ago, with the odds of it striking Earth reaching nearly 3%. Thankfully, those odds have since dwindled down to practically nothing, but the Moon is not safe from the menacing space rock. There’s a 4.3% chance the asteroid will hit the Moon in six years, releasing about 8 megatons of energy during impact.
The astronomers simulated the path of asteroid 2024 YR4 to investigate the aftermath of the possible impact. The findings, available on the preprint server arXiv, suggest the asteroid collision would be the most energetic lunar impact recorded in human history. The paper, co-authored by astronomer Martin Connors from Western University and Athabasca University in Canada, has been accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters.
Brace for impact
The team created 10,000 simulations that charted the most likely places where the asteroid would hit the Moon. Using computer models of the solar system, the scientists traced the asteroid’s path ahead of its close flyby on December 22, 2032.
They found that the impact would result in a bright flash of a magnitude somewhere between -2.5 and -3. By comparison, Venus, the second brightest celestial object in the night sky after the Moon itself, shines with a magnitude between -3.7 and -4.9.
At this level of luminosity, the impact would be visible to the naked eye. The bright flash would last for several minutes after the impact, followed by an infrared afterglow that could persist for several hours, according to the study.
The study also suggests the lunar impact could produce meteor showers that could last for days. If it were to strike the Moon’s surface, the asteroid would fling up to 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of lunar rocks toward Earth, causing them to rain down through the night skies.
Collision course
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile discovered the asteroid on December 27, 2024. At the time, the space rock was 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) away from Earth and has continued to drift farther into space. The asteroid’s next close approach won’t be until December 2028.
The scientists behind the recent study suggest that follow-up observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 should be planned around its upcoming close flyby to determine an impact timeline, as well as the possible location where it may crash into the Moon.
If the asteroid were to strike the Moon, it would give scientists a rare opportunity to observe a lunar impact and watch as a crater is carved on the lunar surface.
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